Matt Cronin's Day 4 AnalysisMatt Cronin's Day 4 AnalysisMatt Cronin's Day 4 Analysis
Thursday, August 28, 2008
 Nadal power |
 Murray Serve |
 Serena Williams |
 Ana Celebrates |
By Matt Cronin
1- RAFAEL NADAL V. RYLER DEHEART
The world's premier lefty matches up against a relatively unknown lefty in DeHeart, who qualified for the tournament and then won a terrific five-setter over Olivier Rochus. A Tampa native and former University of Illinois player, DeHeart has done a terrific job of scratching his way up through the USTA Pro Circuits.
Guess what his reward is? A date with Rafa, who has been all but unbeatable since March, winning the French Open, Wimbledon, Toronto and the Olympic gold. The only man he's gone down to this summer is Aussie Open champ Novak Djokovic, and as admirably as DeHeart has played since he arrived at the site for qualifiers last week, he's no Djokovic. Hopefully, DeHeart won't freeze up and will give the fans something to cheer about, but Nadal already gotten through some mediocre moments in his first-round match and will wear the American down in straight sets.
6- ANDY MURRAY V. MICHAEL LLODRA
The British No. 1 comes into the tournament as a top-four favorite for the first time in his career, coming off his first Masters Series title in Cincinnati. Scotland's favorite lad has been a step behind junior foes Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the pro tour, but now appears to be catching up. Murray has increased his upper-body strength, and therefore his service speed and size of his forehand, nice additions to an already intelligent and high-variety game. Plus, he's a gamer, and you really can't teach that.
In Llodra, he'll be facing a very capable left-handed serve-and-volleyer who on a red-hot day can dominate the net. The Frenchman is inconsistent week to week, but he's taken more than his fair share of sizeable scalps. Fortunately for Murray, he returns serves particularly well and will make Llodra bend low to scoop up volleys. This is Wednesday's must-see match on the men's side, and Murray will come through in four tasty sets.
24- PAUL HENRI MATHIEU V. MARDY FISH
Mardy Fish describes his US Open results as horrible, and to some degree, he's right, at least in the eight losses he's taken, three in the first round and five in the second. For an American who has reached as high as No. 17 in the world, that's not going to get it done, especially because Fish is an attacking player whose style should fit neatly into quick hard courts.
He admits that the pressure of performing at home may have gotten to him. It certainly did last year when he failed to close out Tommy Robredo in five sets. Here is another great opportunity for the Floridian, who will be married on Sept. 28 to “Deal or No Deal” actress Stacy Gardner.
Mathieu is an excellent all-around player who has fried Fish in their only two meetings on hard courts - at 2007 Indian Wells and Madrid. But the Frenchman is mired in a mediocre May-through-August stretch, and although he's a capable shotmaker, he can be had if he's taken deep into a match. He's a rhythm player who doesn't like to be smothered, and that's what Fish can do if he's serving huge, covering the net and keeping his sporadic forehand in play.
This result of this contest is entirely on Fish's racket. He knows that if he plays to form he can reach his first third round, but he also realizes that if he doesn't, he'll be bitterly disappointed. That's true pressure. Let's grant Mardy an early wedding present and concede him a four-set victory.
17- ALIZE CORNET V. BETHANIE MATTEK
While at the US Open, there is tendency to predict wins for the home squad because many Americans put up better results here than elsewhere (some of that having to do with the surface). But it's not a straight-out home-country bias. So here's a very tricky pick between an American Mattek, who has improved immensely in the past year and standout young French player Cornet, who has showed this summer that she's much more than a clay-court player.
Mattek, who reached the semifinals of LA, credits her better results to an isometrics-based conditioning program, and true to her claim she rarely looks tired, squeaking out a long, three-set victory over Marta Domachowska in the first round. Yet Cornet is a much more consistent player than the Pole, and is smarter, quicker and has more weapons. She nearly toppled Serena at the Olympics and reached the semis of New Haven. She's not quite ready for prime time, but the 18-year-old is getting very close.
Mattek has to dictate to win this match, as a Cornet choke is unlikely. The American has decent tools from the back court, but as fit as she is, she will lose most of their foot races. While a Mattek upset is certainly conceivable, it's too early for Cornet to feel the pressure of the tournament, and the Frenchwoman will push through in three sets.
4- SERENA WILLIAMS V. ELENA VESNINA
It's rare to watch a reasonably young Russian player and observe that she’s never going to be an elite player, but that's the look of Vesnina, whose strokes aren't clean enough and do little to overwhelm her opponents. She's spunky, but routinely gets caught in her own questionable patterns.
In decent form, Serena should clean her clock. The two-time US Open champion looked in solid form in her first-round victory, serving and striking her groundstrokes cleanly. Serena does not have to play great to win this contest, only to keep Vesnina moving around until she falters. What Williams does need to do is display more of her repertoire when she begins to run away with this contest, because no other match will easy from here on out. Williams in straight sets.
1- ANA IVANOVIC V. JULIE COIN
Ivanovic is very fortunate to draw Coin in the second round, as she looked very rusty in her opener. Coin is a 25-year-old journeywoman from France who turned her season around by winning the Vancouver Challenger. There is nothing in her resume that indicates that she can go toe to toe with Ivanovic for more than few games, unless the Serbian's bad right thumb begins to hurt again and she can no longer grip her racket.
Whether Ivanovic can actually win this tournament is an open question. The French Open champion has the strokes and mentality to do so, but she's only played one match post-Wimbledon, and at age 21, still isn't quite seasoned to the point where, without a substantial amount of practice, she can be expected to hit her top form quickly. She'll get through here, but then the large tests will come, and her hard-court resume will either be given a thumbs-up or thumbs-down.
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