Matt Cronin's Day 5 Analysis
Friday, August 29, 2008
 Jankovic's forehand |
 Dementieva backhand |
 Davenport Forehand |
 Azarenka hustle |
 Novak Djokovic |
 Roddick Pumped |
 Cilic serving |
Matt Cronin's Day 5 Analysis
Thursday, August 28, 2008By Matt Cronin
2-JELENA JANKOVIC V. JIE ZHENG
How exactly is Jankovic going to win her first Grand Slam when she feels so physically put upon? She's not going to without a complete change of attitude. Sure, she's only seven weeks past her knee injury at Wimbledon, but she's three mediocre tournament performances past that and should be no means be feeling way out of shape. Why she does is beyond the rest of the tennis world, given that she didn't have to take any substantial breaks this year.
The world No. 2 can win this event, but has to play much more aggressively and re-inject herself with some self-belief. If she is as hesitant as she was against Sofia Arvidsson in the first round, she'll lose in straight sets here, because Wimbledon semifinalist Zheng is a smart veteran who is way more consistent than the Swede is. This might be the upset special of the day for some folks, but Jankovic has whined her way through plenty of wins this summer and will do so here in three sets. But she has to step up her level or she'll go down to Azarenka or Wozniacki in the next round.
5-ELENA DEMENTIEVA V. ANNE KEOTHAVONG
How pleasant it is to have a British woman back in the mix. It's been quite some time since the birthplace of tennis has helped produce a player with top-30 stuff, and the hard-working Keothavong has the potential to move forward if she keeps improving her all-around game. She's a good mover with decent weapons from the backcourt who on a great day can be relentless.
But she's met her match here, as Dementieva defines the tireless, put-up-your-dukes-and-go-15-rounds type of competitor. She's playing free and easy after her Olympic gold-medal run, and she rarely gets tight after significant tournament runs. The only way that Britain's top player can pull an upset here if Dementieva loses her head, and it's way to early in the tournament for that. The Russian will win in straight sets.
12-MARION BARTOLI V. 23-LINDSAY DAVENPORT
Davenport has been blessed with a negotiable quarter and she could have had to face a much more difficult foe had she been played on the top half of the draw. The 1998 US Open champion wasn't impressed with her play in her win over Alisa Kleybanova, but she actually did serve reasonably well, struck her forehand fiercely and carefully rode the momentum shifts.
Now she faces a more experienced player in Bartoli, and one whom she has to serve much better against, because the Frenchwoman can rip her returns. But this is a matchup that Davenport likes: an inside the baseline slugfest where she won't be forced to do too much running. Bartoli is not a retriever extraordinaire, and if Davenport can keep most balls within her wheelhouse, she's a cleaner ball striker. She will, but this time, the 32-year-old will need three sets to come away with the victory.
14-VICTORIA AZARENKA V. 21-CAROLINE WOZNIAKI
Get your seat cushions out early because this should be the most hotly contested match of the day on the women's side, with two extremely promising teens going head to head. The Dane Wozniacki, all of 18, is on a two-tournament winning streak while the Belarussian Azarenka, 19, seems to go deeper and deeper with every tournament she enters. Azarenka was the ITF junior No. 1, while Wozniacki was No. 2. Don't think those rankings don't matter, as over the past decade, a slew of the ITF's top dogs and tigresses have shot right up the charts after entering the pros.
These two have never played and are still a bit raw, but they are powerful, hit the ball deep, are strong off both wings, can move the ball around and mix it up. Neither is quite ready to win the tournament, but one might be prepared for a semifinal. While Wozniacki has been on a bigger hot streak, Azarenka has been testing herself in more difficult draws and appears to be a bit more mentally tough. Take Azarenka, the Scottsdale resident, in three sets, but this one really is a coin flip.
3-NOVAK DJOKOVIC V. ROBERT KENDRICK
Djokovic had an left ankle injury scare in his first-round win, but is confident that it won't affect him. Kendrick, a big-serving, forehand-whacking veteran out of Fresno, Calif., is hoping that the sweet-swinging Serbian will be slowed a bit. For although Kendrick can be scary when he's in the zone, he's not consistent or powerful enough to blow holes in the Serbian backboard.
Kendrick is a fiery sort, so is sure to bomb away and attempt to get the crowd to love him. He nearly upset Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon three years ago and doesn't appear to have a fear of the big stage, but he rarely makes it there. Grant Kendrick a set, but no more, as Djokovic will come away with a four-set victory.
8-ANDY RODDICK V. ERNESTS GULBIS
Roddick has perhaps never been more impressive than he was in the first round, destroying French veteran Fabrice Santoro. Everything was working for the 2003 US Open champion - his huge serve and forehand, his volleys and even his spotty backhand. He was feeling very, very good about himself.
With US Davis Cup Captain Patrick McEnroe at his side during the tournament, Roddick has been able to take a load off his mind as his brother, John, has decide to stop coaching him. McEnroe knows Roddick's game extremely well and should know what buttons to push, but it's up to Andy to execute.
Roddick must serve big and consistently well in this match, because the teenager Gulbis is real up-and-comer. He will overmatch Roddick from the backhand side and can bomb serves himself. He also says that he gets pumped up to compete at the Slams, and given his strong showing at Roland Garros, you have to believe him. But this is New York, where Roddick has met, as Kipling once said, with both triumph and disaster. For a lanky, soft-spoken kid from Latvia, a night match on Arthur Ashe Stadium might be too much to handle. He has the skills to pull off the victory, but not the know-how -- yet. Roddick in four tight sets.
18-NICOLAS ALMAGRO V. SAM WARBURG
Warburg caught a break in the first round when Janko Tipsarevic retired against him, but the Sacramento, Calif., native has made decent strides this year, improving his fitness, going for his serves and getting more aggressive overall. He is for all intents and purposes a Challenger-level player, but he did win a match at the Australian Open this year and is due for his day in the New York sun.
Almagro is just the type of player he should be able to upset, because although the Spaniard has improved on hard courts, he is the worst concrete player of any of his elite countrymen. He has a strong and underrated serve, but his heavily topspinned strokes don't translate well to quicker surfaces and he can be hit through. Warburg has to play perhaps the best match of his life to be able to do so, but the U.S. men have been spot on, pulling off the obvious upsets that have been on their plates, and Warburg will come through in four sets.
30-MARIN CILIC V. ROBBY GINEPRI
Cilic may be a teenager unknown to much of America, but he just won New Haven, firing past Mardy Fish, and also owns a win over Andy Roddick on hard courts this summer. That's why he's is going to overcome Ginepri, who consistently plays his best tennis in New York, but will be hard-pressed to return Cilic's serve, keep him off the net, and expose him in rallies from the backcourt.
Of course Ginepri is capable of grinding him down, and it may just be that coming off New Haven Cilic is a little tired. But the Croatian is stronger than he looks, is confident that he's ready for the big time and won't waste too much energy pounding balls in cross-court rallies. Ginepri will look very good for a while, but Cilic will win the big points in a four-set victory.
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